Break-even countdown · my solar (estimate)
34.3% paid back · live estimate, counting up
Data through Oct 23, 2026, updated monthly. Savings are estimated month by month from my measured home use and solar (car excluded) at FPL’s October 2026 rates, counting only solar used in the house until net metering was approved on January 16, 2024. Today’s figure extends that at the average of the last 12 full months ($4,366/yr). Bill-based cross-check: about $8,509 saved so far and break-even around Aug 2035. Loan interest and the Powerwalls are not included.
* Includes the 30% federal tax credit Rick received for his 2023 install. That credit isn’t available for systems installed after 2025 — see break-even without it.
If you bought this today (no tax credit)
Without the 30% credit (buyers today): $51,018.50 solar-only, break-even ~12 years (kWh method), ~11 with 3%/yr FPL rate rises and ~10 with 5%/yr. Bill method: ~17 / 14 / 13 years.
Same panels, same roof, same savings as mine, at my 2023 price. The federal credit ended for systems installed after December 31, 2025 (IRS). Today’s prices may be different.
* Includes the 30% federal tax credit Rick received for his 2023 install. That credit isn’t available for systems installed after 2025 — see break-even without it.
This is the question I get most: what did it cost, and how long until it pays for itself? Here are my real contract numbers, my real FPL bills from before and after, and a month-by-month savings estimate built from my own production data. Loan interest is not included — I explain why below.
What I paid
I signed with Tesla in July 2023 for solar plus two Powerwall+ batteries. Here’s the contract, line by line:
| Line item | Amount |
|---|---|
| Install, permitting & fees | $30,395.92 |
| Panels (58 × 425 W) | $12,364.44 |
| Inverters & balance of system | $6,182.22 |
| Mounting | $2,575.92 |
| Referral credit | −$500.00 |
| Solar subtotal | $51,018.50 |
| Two Powerwall+ (after −$5,200 bundle discount) | $18,700.00 |
| Sales tax | $0 |
| Contract total, July 2023 | $69,718.50 |
| 30% federal tax credit (not available today) | −$20,915.55 |
| Net cost before loan interest* | ≈ $48,803* |
One thing that isn’t on that list: Tesla normally charges an upcharge for putting the equipment in a garage — for me it would have been roughly $3,000–4,000. I refused to pay it, and Tesla waived it. If your installer quotes a garage or interior-install fee, it’s worth pushing back.
Notice how the money splits. The panels themselves were only $12,364 of the $51,019 solar price; installation, permitting and fees were $30,396. And the Powerwalls were $18,700 of the total — on FPL net metering they don’t lower my bill at all (more on that in are Powerwalls worth it in Florida?).
The 30% credit and the loan
The federal residential clean energy credit was 30% of the full cost, batteries included: $20,915.55. That brings the net cost to about $48,803*. That credit no longer exists for new installs (what that means for buyers today). I financed through a Tesla loan of $69,618.50 and paid it off in April 2025. I don’t have a clean figure for the total interest I paid, so I’ve left interest out of every number here. If you finance, interest pushes your break-even later — get the total-interest figure from your lender and add it to the cost.
* Includes the 30% federal tax credit Rick received for his 2023 install. That credit isn’t available for systems installed after 2025 — see break-even without it.
Method 1: my actual FPL bills, before and after
In 2023, before solar and before the car, I made 12 FPL payments totaling $4,268.92. The highest was $505.56 in August.
My last 12 bills (November 2025 through October 2026) totaled about $974, plus the FPL EVolution home-charger fee of $18.41 a month that’s billed separately (about $221 a year). All-in: about $1,195 a year.
What I paid FPL, before and after
Dollars per month
2023–Sep 2024: amounts from my FPL payment confirmation emails (payments lag the bill by about a month). Nov 2025–Oct 2026: bill amounts plus the $18.41 EVolution Home charge. Net metering was approved January 16, 2024.
And that $1,195 now includes charging a Model X — about 920 kWh a month that didn’t exist in 2023. So the all-in difference, about $3,074 a year, understates what solar does. Strip out the car’s flat EV charges and the house-only bills fell by about $3,533 a year.
Caveats I can’t remove: FPL’s rates changed between 2023 and 2026, payments lag bills by about a month, and my home use isn’t identical year to year (2026 has run a few percent higher than 2025). I don’t have kWh for the 2023 bills, only the dollar amounts.
Method 2: my measured kWh × FPL’s rate
The second method doesn’t depend on what year it is. For each month since December 2023 I take my house’s actual use (from the Tesla app, excluding the car, which is billed a flat fee on its own meter) and ask: what would FPL have charged for that use with no solar, and what does it charge with my solar subtracted?
- Rates from my October 2026 bill: $0.09365 non-fuel + $0.02893 fuel per kWh for the first 1,000 kWh (12.3¢), and $0.10365 + $0.03893 above 1,000 kWh (14.3¢), plus about 2.5% gross receipts tax.
- Solar I use directly and solar I export both count at the same rate, because FPL net metering credits exports 1:1 against what I buy. Solar knocks off the expensive over-1,000 kWh tier first.
- Any leftover credit at the end of FPL’s annual cycle is paid out at a much lower rate. My October 2026 bill shows a kWh reserve of 0, so I don’t think much was lost that way, but I haven’t verified every year.
Savings add up: about ${SAV_TOTAL:,.0f} so far
Cumulative dollars saved since December 2023 vs. the cost lines
ESTIMATE. Monthly home use and solar from the Tesla app (car excluded), valued at FPL’s October 2026 residential rates with tiers and ~2.5% gross receipts tax. Earlier years were billed at different rates.
Show the numbers
| Month | Home kWh (excl. car) | Solar kWh | Exported kWh | Est. saved | Cumulative |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023-12 | 1,900 | 510 | 10 | $73 | $73 |
| 2024-01 | 1,500 | 900 | 370 | $101 | $174 |
| 2024-02 | 1,300 | 1,200 | 1,200 | $157 | $331 |
| 2024-03 | 2,300 | 2,700 | 1,300 | $366 | $697 |
| 2024-04 | 2,800 | 3,400 | 1,800 | $464 | $1,161 |
| 2024-05 | 3,200 | 3,600 | 1,800 | $497 | $1,658 |
| 2024-06 | 3,300 | 3,300 | 1,500 | $462 | $2,120 |
| 2024-07 | 3,300 | 3,200 | 1,300 | $449 | $2,569 |
| 2024-08 | 3,300 | 2,900 | 1,100 | $412 | $2,981 |
| 2024-09 | 3,100 | 2,200 | 660 | $319 | $3,300 |
| 2024-10 | 2,900 | 2,200 | 860 | $315 | $3,616 |
| 2024-11 | 2,400 | 1,900 | 770 | $267 | $3,883 |
| 2024-12 | 2,400 | 1,600 | 620 | $230 | $4,113 |
| 2025-01 | 2,800 | 1,900 | 780 | $276 | $4,388 |
| 2025-02 | 2,000 | 1,900 | 980 | $259 | $4,648 |
| 2025-03 | 2,400 | 2,800 | 1,500 | $381 | $5,028 |
| 2025-04 | 2,500 | 3,400 | 1,900 | $458 | $5,486 |
| 2025-05 | 3,100 | 3,400 | 1,600 | $470 | $5,956 |
| 2025-06 | 3,500 | 3,200 | 1,200 | $453 | $6,410 |
| 2025-07 | 4,000 | 3,300 | 1,200 | $476 | $6,886 |
| 2025-08 | 3,800 | 2,900 | 730 | $422 | $7,307 |
| 2025-09 | 2,900 | 2,600 | 520 | $366 | $7,673 |
| 2025-10 | 2,600 | 2,200 | 440 | $309 | $7,982 |
| 2025-11 | 2,300 | 2,100 | 480 | $291 | $8,273 |
| 2025-12 | 2,500 | 1,600 | 420 | $232 | $8,505 |
| 2026-01 | 2,800 | 1,800 | 720 | $263 | $8,768 |
| 2026-02 | 2,500 | 2,100 | 930 | $295 | $9,062 |
| 2026-03 | 2,500 | 2,700 | 1,200 | $370 | $9,432 |
| 2026-04 | 2,500 | 3,200 | 1,300 | $433 | $9,865 |
| 2026-05 | 3,300 | 3,300 | 1,600 | $462 | $10,327 |
| 2026-06 | 3,700 | 3,300 | 1,200 | $470 | $10,797 |
| 2026-07 | 4,200 | 3,300 | 910 | $480 | $11,277 |
| 2026-08 | 3,800 | 2,800 | 730 | $409 | $11,686 |
| 2026-09 | 2,900 | 2,500 | 830 | $353 | $12,039 |
| 2026-10 | 1,900 | 1,500 | 590 | $207 | $12,246 |
* Includes the 30% federal tax credit Rick received for his 2023 install. That credit isn’t available for systems installed after 2025 — see break-even without it.
Per year
Estimated dollars saved
ESTIMATE, kWh model. 2024 includes about 1,700 kWh lost to an inverter outage.
What it adds up to
- $12,246 saved through Oct 23, 2026 (est.)
- $4,366 in the last 12 full months (Oct 2025–Sep 2026)
- 87,410 kWh of solar valued
- That’s about 364 dollars a month, or ~14.0¢ per solar kWh
Break-even, both ways
Here’s the number most people want. I count it on the solar part only — $51,018.50, or $35,712.95 after the 30% federal tax credit* — because solar is what saves the money. The batteries are a separate backup purchase (see below). Years are counted from December 2023, my first solar month. “Rates rise” means FPL’s prices go up that much every year from now on.
| After the 30% credit* | Savings per year | Rates flat | Rates +3%/yr | Rates +5%/yr |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bills, all-in 2023 payments vs. last 12 bills, incl. the Model X | $3,074 | 11.6 yrs | 10.6 yrs | 10.0 yrs |
| Bills, house only same, with the car’s flat EV fees removed | $3,533 | 10.1 yrs | 9.3 yrs | 9.0 yrs |
| kWh model my measured solar kWh × today’s FPL rate | $4,366 | 8.3 yrs | 7.8 yrs | 7.6 yrs |
Why the two methods disagree
The kWh model says about $4,366 a year; the all-in bill comparison says about $3,074. Most of the gap is plain:
- The car. The all-in bill comparison charges solar for the Model X I added in 2024 (about $459 a year in EVolution fees). The car would cost money with or without solar. Remove it and the bill method gives $3,533.
- Different rate years. The bill method uses 2023 prices on one side and 2026 prices on the other. The kWh model prices every month at today’s rates, which are what my future savings will actually be measured against.
- Different usage. I don’t have 2023 kWh, and my home uses more in some years than others. The kWh model compares the same month’s actual use with and without solar, so usage changes cancel out.
My honest read: the real answer is probably closer to the kWh model, and the all-in bill comparison is the cautious upper end. Either way, my solar pays for itself somewhere between about 8 and 12 years* after it was switched on — roughly Mar 2032 to Jul 2035 if FPL rates stay flat, and sooner if they rise.
* Includes the 30% federal tax credit Rick received for his 2023 install. That credit isn’t available for systems installed after 2025 — see break-even without it.
If you bought this today (no tax credit)
My numbers above include the 30% federal residential clean energy credit, because I got it: my system went in in November 2023. A buyer today doesn’t get it. The 2025 tax law ended the credit for expenditures made after December 31, 2025, and the IRS says an expenditure counts as made when installation is completed, so paying a deposit in 2025 doesn’t help if the system was finished in 2026 (IRS: Residential Clean Energy Credit; IRS FAQ, Fact Sheet 2025-05, question 7; 26 U.S.C. §25D(h)).
So here’s the same system, same roof and same savings, priced at the full contract amount with no credit. It uses my July 2023 price as an example. Installed prices today may be higher or lower, so plug in your own quote.
| Break-even, years from switch-on | Cost | Method | Rates flat | +3%/yr | +5%/yr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Solar only, with credit* | $35,712.95 | kWh model | 8.3 | 7.8 | 7.6 |
| Bills, all-in | 11.6 | 10.6 | 10.0 | ||
| Solar only, no credit (today) | $51,018.50 | kWh model | 11.8 | 10.7 | 10.1 |
| Bills, all-in | 16.6 | 14.3 | 13.2 | ||
| Whole system incl. Powerwalls, with credit* | $48,803 | kWh model | 11.3 | 10.3 | 9.8 |
| Bills, all-in | 15.9 | 13.7 | 12.8 | ||
| Whole system incl. Powerwalls, no credit (today) | $69,718.50 | kWh model | 16.1 | 13.9 | 12.9 |
| Bills, all-in | 22.7 | 18.3 | 16.5 |
* Includes the 30% federal tax credit Rick received for his 2023 install. That credit isn’t available for systems installed after 2025 — see break-even without it.
Without the credit, my solar would take about 12 years to pay back on the kWh model (about 11 if FPL raises rates 3% a year, 10 at 5%), and about 17 years on the more cautious bill comparison. That’s roughly 3–5 years longer than my own break-even. With the Powerwalls counted in, it stretches to about 16–23 years at flat rates. Solar alone still pays for itself on my numbers, but the margin is thinner, and loan interest matters even more.
Florida incentives that still apply
Florida has no state solar tax credit or rebate that I’ve found, but two state tax breaks are written into law and don’t depend on the federal credit:
- No sales tax on solar equipment. Florida exempts “solar energy systems or any component thereof” from sales and use tax. That’s why my contract shows $0 in sales tax (Fla. Stat. §212.08(7)(hh); Florida Department of Revenue TIP 19A01-09).
- No property tax on the added value. For homes, the value a solar system (panels, inverters, storage) adds can’t be counted in the assessed value for property tax (Fla. Stat. §193.624).
Both are already baked into my numbers: I paid no sales tax, and I don’t count any property tax change. Utility programs change often, so check FPL’s site and your county for anything current before you sign. I haven’t counted any here.
The Powerwalls are a separate decision
The two Powerwall+ units cost $18,700, or about $13,090 after the 30% credit* (the full $18,700 for a buyer today). On FPL’s 1:1 net metering they add essentially no bill savings — storing a kWh for the evening is worth the same as exporting it at noon. At my 100% backup reserve they actually cost me about $26 a year in idle top-up charging. I bought them for hurricane and outage backup, and I judge them on that (full Powerwall article).
If you do lump them in, the whole system ($48,803 net*, or $69,718.50 before the credit) breaks even much later:
| Whole system, net $48,803* | Rates flat | Rates +3%/yr | Rates +5%/yr |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bills, all-in | 15.9 yrs | 13.7 yrs | 12.8 yrs |
| Bills, house only | 13.8 yrs | 12.2 yrs | 11.5 yrs |
| kWh model | 11.3 yrs | 10.3 yrs | 9.8 yrs |
* Includes the 30% federal tax credit Rick received for his 2023 install. That credit isn’t available for systems installed after 2025 — see break-even without it.
What I didn’t include
- Loan interest (unknown).
- Panel degradation (probably around 1% a year, not measurable yet).
- Future repairs out of warranty. So far Tesla has covered the inverter fan (2024) and an inverter replacement (2026).
- Any change to FPL net metering. If Florida ever pays less for exported power, my savings drop.
- Home value, insurance, or the value of backup power during outages.
Practical tips
- Ask for the line items. Installation and fees were 60% of my solar price.
- Push back on extra fees. My garage-install upcharge was waived when I refused to pay it.
- Price the batteries separately. On FPL net metering they’re a backup purchase, not a savings purchase.
- Get your total loan interest in writing and add it to your cost before you believe any payback number.
- Save your old bills. A year of pre-solar bills is the only real before-and-after you’ll ever have.
Related: my real FPL bills with solar and two years of production vs. Tesla’s estimate.